What Weed can expect in 2021
Originally published in Weed World Magazine issue (Jan 2021)
This year has been one of the strangest and most unprecedented years in recent human history. It began with such promise as the US state of Illinois sold over $3 000,000 worth of cannabis on its first day of legal sales and Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders promised to end the war on cannabis on day one of his presidency – if he won the nomination and subsequent election later in the year.
A few weeks later and a novel virus is spreading through the global population faster than reefer madness in the first half of the twentieth century. The pandemic swept across the globe in the first few months of 2020 slowing much of the world to a hellish crawl. Face masks, fear, and “lock-downs” became the new normal.
So as we say goodbye to one of the most difficult years humanity has faced so far this century – I thought I’d take this opportunity to spread a little optimism about the year to come.
2021 is set to be a big year for cannabis in many ways. Firstly, in the United States, a new democratic president and the passing of the MORE Act by the previous administration bodes well for the bill to again pass through the Republican Senate and Democratic House of representatives to be signed in to law in 2021.
The recent publishing of a new Gallop poll shows that more American’s than ever now is in favor of federal legalization of cannabis. Sticking with the US, all of the cannabis measures on the ballot in November 2020 passed. Adding four new States to the ever-growing list of existing ones – meaning that there are now 15 states (plus Washington DC) that have legal adult consumption.
In 2021 there are several more states set to vote on cannabis reform. The most likely states to “legalize recreational” cannabis are New York, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Texas – but several more have the potential to pass reform measures this year. I also believe that various US states will finally start to roll out social consumption lounges/clubs and other 420 friendly venues in 2021 if we can finally get to grips with Covid-19.
Traveling a little further south now to Mexico. The thirteenth biggest country on earth is set to become the world's largest legal cannabis marketplace in 2021 – well until more US states legalize. The Mexican supreme court voted on two cases in 2018 that set a binding precedent that effectively decriminalized cannabis.
This binding precedent meant that the Mexican government had to take immediate steps to establish a legal cannabis marketplace, however, due to the on-going Covid-19 pandemic the deadline was subsequently pushed back several times but is still likely to pass this year in my opinion.
Heading over to Europe now. I predict there will be a lot of movement on reform as more European countries take note of the profits and tax revenue of countries like the US and Canada. There is potential that Luxembourg could become the first European nation to “legalize” “recreational” cannabis in 2021 if the coalition government can finalize the legislation in time
Sticking with Europe, The Netherlands long famed for its tolerance of the “soft drug” cannabis will begin a four-year experiment in ten municipalities to supply Coffeeshops from government-approved cultivators in an attempt to resolve the long-standing illegal “back door” supply issue.
In the United Kingdom cannabis will become an evermore vital topic of discussion in Parliament as the Island nation begins to come to terms with the scale of the self-inflicted harm that Brexit may cause. The UK has the potential to become one of the most advanced industrial cannabis countries on earth – if only the ignorance and greed of the industry and government would allow it to flourish organically.
Over the next year, several European countries will also likely move to increase access to Hemp and CBD products and “medical cannabis” following the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruling that CBD is not a narcotic in 2020. The European market has the potential to be far larger than the North American one as the population of continental Europe is nearly 50% bigger than that of Canada, America, and Mexico combined.
Heading over to the middle-east – Israel is set to become the third country to legalize cannabis for adult consumption in 2021. This comes off the back of an interministerial committee that was tasked to look at so-called “recreational cannabis” and how to potentially implement a legal marketplace.
The recommendations made by the committee give a nine-month window for the government to implement a legal adult consumption model similar to that of Canada. The controversial nation also recently announced the creation of a cannabis index for the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) The index will launch in February but currently has a rather low investment cap and is only limited to seven “medical cannabis” companies but if the committee's recommendations are implemented then expect to see the word medical dropped and that investment cap lifted greatly, if not removed completely.
Generally speaking, most progressive nations will now be looking seriously at legalizing cannabis to offset their shrinking economies due to the on-going global Covid-19 pandemic. Cannabis is a big business just look at the US where its citizens spent $17 billion on “legal” weed and an estimated $60 billion on “illegal” unregulated cannabis and cannabis products last year.
The removal of cannabis from schedule four of the 1961 UN Single Convention On Narcotic Drugs by the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs last month will greatly help these countries to reform their antiquated and draconian cannabis policies. So keep an eye out for some unlikely countries declaring their intention to legalize cannabis in the coming years.
We can also expect to see various “medical cannabis” producing countries increasing their international exports of cannabis flowers and CBMP’s over the next twelve months. The recent merger of Aphria and Tilray in Canada is one to watch in this regard.
The end of 2020 also saw the announcement that Canopy Growth, a Canadian cannabis company was suing GW Pharmaceuticals for infringing on a newly acquired twenty-year-old C02 extraction patent. Canopy claims that GW’s published extraction process for Epidiolex infringes on their patent. This extraction process has become industry standard over the last few decades so its loss or the introduction of expensive license fees could be devastating to new and smaller players in the industry.
I believe that global demand may skyrocket this year as more and more research begins to point to cannabinoids and cannabis as an effective prophylactic treatment for Covid-19. With each year that passes the stigma around cannabis lessens and the curiosity of the masses grows.
It is this curiosity that will increase demand in the coming year in all countries legal or not. More people than ever before are informed and choose to support and consume it regardless of the consequences or local laws.
In regions that have already legalized cannabis, we’re seeing a real divergence in the demographic of consumers. We’re seeing more older first-time consumers and the average age of consumers increases as the older generation begins to learn about the benefits of cannabinoids and cannabis. More people than ever are switching their prescription pills for prescription pot. This is likely to only increase this year too.
Long gone are the days of spotting a cannabis consumer simply by their appearance and the use of a few certain cultural buzzwords. As legalization takes hold in various regions around the world and the propaganda of prohibition begins to fall silent more and more people are seeking to discover and experience the joys of cannabis for themselves.
Looking at potential cannabis trends this year there is a lot to discuss and not much article left to do it in so we’ll focus on a few of the ones I feel are most important below.
We can expect to see more hedge funds and investment firms try to buy their way into the industry over the next twelve months as more territories make the move to legalize CBD/Hemp, Medical, and adult consumption markets.
A great example of this is last year's deal between Shawn “Jay-Z” Carter, Left coast ventures, Caliva, and Subversive Capital Acquisition Corp which created California’s biggest cannabis company. The new company called The Parent Co also signed an exclusive partnership deal with the rapper's entertainment company RocNation to market cannabis products from artists like Rihanna, DJ Khaled, and Alicia Keys.
So expect to see a lot more celebrity fronted and endorsed cannabis brands in 2021 as more famous faces look to join the burgeoning industry. I mean, if Martha Stewart is now fronting a CBD brand, any celebrity can and probably will at least consider it.
Last year also saw the formation of The Cannabis Beverage Association in the US, a sign that the brewing industry is finally ready to make serious moves into the legal cannabis industry. We’re already seen many deals between large beer brewers and cannabis companies to produce non-alcoholic cannabis-infused beverages, but it looks like 2021 might just be the year that drinking your weed really takes off.
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the US saw the cannabis industry being declared “essential business”. The ensuing stay at home orders meant that these essential businesses needed to adapt to survive and meet the needs of their customers. This meant that in just a few short months most retailers and states had worked out ways to facilitate online ordering and home delivery. The sheer convenience of this means that it's highly likely the cannabis delivery industry will grow and expand into this year and beyond.
New research and studies on cannabis will continue to trickle out of laboratories around the world in 2021. Hopefully, we shall see much more transparent public sector and government-backed studies now that cannabis has been removed from its archaic scheduling under the 1961 UN convention. This could help ensure that any discoveries that are made benefit all of us and not just the shareholders of various pharmaceutical companies around the world.
It’s a pretty safe bet for me to predict that as always the illicit market will continue to far outperform the legal one. The US spent 3 times as much on the unregulated one than the regulated one last year and I have no reason to believe that will change anytime soon. The times are slowly changing but it's not fast enough or going anywhere near far enough for the cannabis advocates, activists, and consumers around the world who do not feel represented in this newly emerging global cannabis industry.
This year demand will continue to grow as more people than ever become aware of the benefits of cannabis from watching the progress of legal territories around the world. As each new country or state legalizes we get one small step closer to cultivating compassionate conversations, stopping the stigma, and eventually ending the war on cannabis consumers.
Ultimately, the coming year will be what we make of it. If 2020 gave us anything it was a pause for thought and one of the main lessons I think that we all learned last year was that you can't control the future but you can best prepare yourself for it.
Written for Weed World Magazine By Simpa
